What if Macron is forced into cohabitation?

Emmanuel Macron is currently a favourite in the polls. But his security record is at the heart of all opposition, and his winks to the progressive or woke fringe of the electorate are so supported that the right-wing bloc is more powerful than ever in France. To the point that a future cohabitation seems inevitable to our columnist …

It is very surprising that no one talks about what is more than a probability.

While the media comment day and night on the "punchlines" of our politicians (in good French: vacherie qui hits), the permanent criticism of the oppositions between them (which so far serves as a programme for them, note well), the chances or not of having the 500 signatures to be able to run, the balance of the polls, we do not draw any medium-term conclusions from this plethora of candidates to the right who, extreme or not, credible or not, make France very clear …. To the right!

Uncertain political balances

On the other hand, almost every day we follow the order Paper of the National Assembly, its coming and going with the Senate and the votes that no longer have party coherence. What is certain is that the "dillots" who voted as one man at the beginning of the quinquennium, have regained their independence until they are unable to agree on a vaccination pass or on much. Defectors accentuate the phenomenon: "I support you", "I supported you", "I no longer support you", "I leave the party", etc.

To read also, by the same author: I love men …

The political balances are so uncertain that the worst thing is that a candidate's fierce enemies will fight to get his signatures so that he can run for office! They say that the Republicans would help Zemmour get his signatures, because if Marine Le Pen were alone, she would pass in front of Valérie Pécresse to face Macron. This kitchen discredits politics as we want it, because of a recent decree which makes public the signatures given by mayors, which is contrary to the principle of secret voting, and moreover constitutes a real attack on democracy: elected officials would be 'prevented' by fear of local reprisals! But what has been done to deserve so many harmful inconsistencies?

Sophie de Menthon's fiction policy

Let us now imagine the second round duels as programmed by the surveyors: Macron / Le Pen, or Macron / Pécresse or Macron / Zemmour … ISN't there anything else on the menu? In any case, it would seem today that the former President would win, reaping the lost votes of the vanished left and benefiting from everything but "the extreme right."

What seems quite certain to me is that the legislatures who will immediately follow such a second round have virtually no chance of giving a clear majority to the party "on the move", unless there is a reversal of the situation that we cannot imagine at the moment. Therefore, the President elected on his own personality and not on the basis of his political party will, in fact, be obliged to establish cohabitation with the leader of the party that will impose himself in the legislatures, a right in the broad sense ….

He will then have for his prime Minister to choose between Marine Le Pen, Valérie Pécresse or Eric Zemmour (sorry for the others but I Don't see anything coming!) this is the institutional rule … The French will have no choice but to blame whoever gives in to the attraction of Matignon and the future of France will still go to Canossa, because the leader remains the President. How to govern? How, then, can we recover from all the bloody attacks carried out during the campaign by the candidate who has become Prime Minister against the President of the Republic? you will tell me that we have seen this before, of course, but not in such a rapid period of time and not in a country upside down. What if Emmanuel Macron refuses cohabitation? It is quite possible to imagine that he refuses to pursue a policy with yesterday's hateful opponents against him. What if he quit? A credible scenario to which no one has alluded either so far. We didn't get out of the inn!

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